Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. It creates an anthropic decision theory (ADT) that decides these problems from a small set of principles. By doing so, it demonstrates that the attitude of agents with regards to each other (selfish or altruistic) changes the decisions they reach, and that it is very important to take this into account. To illustrate ADT, it is then applied to two major anthropic problems and paradoxes, the Presumptuous Philosopher and Doomsday problems, thus resolving some issues about the probability of human extinction.
منابع مشابه
Anthropic decision theory
This paper sets out to solve the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct decision to make. Given certain simple assumptions, it turns out to be possible to do so without knowing the underlying anthropic probabilities. Most common anthropic problems are underspec...
متن کاملHow to Reason about Self-Locating Belief
When reasoning about self-locating belief, one should reason as if one were a randomly selected bit of information. This principle can be considered to be an application of Bostrom’s Strong Self-Sampling Assumption(SSSA)[2] according to which one should reason as if one were a randomly selected element of some suitable reference class of observer-moments. The reference class is the class of all...
متن کاملAnthropics : why Probability isn ’ t enough Stuart
The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Future of Humanity Institute. Anthropics: why probability isn't enough This paper argues that the current treatment of anthropic and self-locating problems over-emphasises the importance of anthropic probabilities, and ignores other relevant and important factors, such as whether the various co...
متن کاملWhen Are Context-sensitive Beliefs Relevant?
I begin with the question of whether self-locating beliefs can be relevant to beliefs de dicto. Can it ever be rational for an agent to change her degree of belief in a belief de dicto as a result of gaining only self-locating information? To analyze this question, I develop a formal technique for modeling the ideally rational evolution of an agent’s degrees of belief as she learns new informat...
متن کاملA fuzzy multi-criteria decision method for ecotourism development locating
The County of Khorram-Abad enjoys a high potential for ecotourism because of its mountains, forests, natural mineral springs, natural waterfalls and diversity in folks and cultures. But, un-planned and uncontrolled ecotourism can have negative effects on environment, economy, culture and even the security of eco-tourists. The main purpose of this study is to present a fuzzy multi-criteria decis...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017